G.M. Crisci (Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Universita' della Calabria, I 87036 Arcavacata, Italy)

S. Di Gregorio, R. Rongo, W. Spataro (Dipartimento di Matematica, Universita' della Calabria, I 87036 Arcavacata, Italy)

F. Nicoletta (Dipartimento di Chimica, Universita' della Calabria, I 87036 Arcavacata, Italy)

The models SCIARA-1 and SCIARA-2, based on the Cellular Automata, are a very potent and versatile instrument whose scope is to reduce volcanic risk from lava flows; the possible fields of intervention are:
a) long term forecasting of the flow direction at various eruption rates and points of emission by locating potential risk areas and permitting the creation of microzonal maps of risk involved;
b) the possibility to precisely follow the progress of an event and predict its evolution in great detail;
c) the verification of the possible effects of human intervention on real or simulated flows in stream deviation.

Corresponding to a) and c) we individuated a risk scenario for the Etnean territories of the towns of Nicolosi, Pedara and S. Alfio. This area was selected because it is closed to the end of the fracture opened in the 1989 eruption and successively activated in 1991-2 eruption. Hundreds of possible episodes have been simulated with different vent locations and have been individuated the main characteristics of lava flows dangerous to the developed environment.