GEOMORPHOLOGICAL HAZARDS FROM THE POSSIBLE SEA-LEVEL RISE: CASE STUDY FOR THE SEA OF AZOV

A. Selivanov
Laboratory of Recent Sediments and Pleistocene
Geography Department
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Moscow

Possible sea-level rise will afffect sea coasts not only by passive inundation but, to the much greater extent, by various types of geomorphological reformation. An integrated methodology for assessment of changes on sea coasts under the possible accelerated sea-level rise in the nearest decades is presented. The methodology is based upon the concept of various morphodynamic types of sea coasts and a probabilistic prediction of shoreline retreat values. Both palaeogeographic data and direct observations are used to establish patterns and intensity of coastal morphological changes. A case study analysis for the coasts of the Sea of Azov in the borders of Russia under the 1-meter global mean sea-level rise by 2100 is presented. Loess escarpments and drift-aligned sandy spits will be most vulnerable to this process. In several segments of the coastal zone, morphological changes will possibly become catastrophic. Shoreline retreat by the end of the 21st century can be as high as 300-500 m for erosinal scarps and over 1 km for depositional bodies. Total economic losses otal economic losses from the sea-level rise can be as high as US$ 3,000,000 per a kilometer of shoreline length.